“Things can only get better” echoed across Downing Street as Rishi Sunak, soaked to the bone in a torrential rain, announced that Britain was headed into a general election campaign. The song by pop act D:Ream had been the soundtrack of Tony Blair’s New Labour landslide campaign in 1997, and on that Wednesday afternoon in May, the perennial anti-Brexit campaigner Steve Bray blasted the tune from his loudspeaker nearby. Did anybody believe the sentiment? Not Bray, who said, “I didn’t do it for Labour. I did it because it was the top trolling song for the Conservatives.”1Sammy Gecsoyler, “Things can only get wetter: D:Ream song drowns out Sunak’s Damp Election Announcement,” Guardian, August 4, 2024, D:Ream themselves quickly distanced themselves from any association with Labour, with Peter Cunnah observing, “This is a change of guard, I don’t see this as an election,” and Alan Mackenzie stating, “I’ll be voting to get the Tories out, but I don’t really want the song to be linked to that.”2PA Media, “‘D:Ream ban Labour from using Things Can Only Get Better,’” Guardian, June 1, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/01/things-can-only-get-better-group-ban-labour-from-using-song. These themes would come to characterize the election campaign.
The announcement came as a surprise to many, though seemingly not to the Tory MPs and aides, who coincidentally placed bets on a July election.3Helen Catt, “Fourth Tory investigated in election bets probe,” BBC News, June 23, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c511nv3pjd6o. Sunak had appeared keen to hang on until the last moment and to call an election later in the year, but it became clear that there was no economic rabbit in the hat that could be pulled out to produce tax cuts, and that increasing numbers of voters were going to see their mortgages steeply go up in price in the months ahead. That morning’s announcement that inflation had reached a three-year low seemed like it would be the best piece of news the Tories could hope to sell their re-election on, so it was decided to call the election sooner rather than later.
Getting the Tories Out
In one sense, the election couldn’t come soon enough. After fourteen years of Tory government, the sense that Britain was simply not working had become widespread. Trade Union Congress leader Paul Nowack accused the Tories of having “broken Britain” in September last year, and left and right commentators alike have been churning out opinion pieces to the effect for years.4Faye Brown, “‘Nothing Works Anymore’: Tories accused of having ‘broken Britain’ with public services ‘in crisis,” Sky News, https://news.sky.com/story/nothing-works-anymore-tories-accused-of-having-broken-britain-with-public-services-in-crisis-12958589; Hannah Rose Woods, “Why does nothing work in the UK anymore?” New Statesman, December 29, 2022, https://www.newstatesman.com/thestaggers/2022/12/nothing-work-uk-anymore-inflation-strikes-nhs; George Chesterton, “From HS2 to raw sewage and Nadine Dorries: how do we stop the narrative of decline?” Evening Standard, September 28, 2023, https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/hs2-travel-national-decline-b1110091.html. A decade of austerity had already devastated public services before the Covid-19 pandemic froze the economy and ushered in the biggest cost-of-living crisis in generations.5Ian Allinson, “The cost-of-living crisis,” rs21, January 6, 2022, https://www.rs21.org.uk/2022/01/06/the-cost-of-living-crisis/. NHS waiting lists in England grew from 2.3 million in January 2010 to 7.6 million by May 2024.6Max Warner and Ben Zaranko, The past and future of NHS waiting lists in England (London: Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2024), https://ifs.org.uk/sites/default/files/2024-02/The-past-and-future-of-NHS-waiting-lists-in-England-IFS-report-R302.pdf. Some 4.3 million children—30 percent of the total—were living in poverty in 2022–23.7Thomas Brown, “Child Poverty: Statistics, causes, and the UK’s policy response,” UK Parliament, April 23, 2024, https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/child-poverty-statistics-causes-and-the-uks-policy-response/.
The Tories had been wracked by crisis after crisis for a decade, particularly since the Brexit campaign, which exacerbated deep tensions in the first party of British capitalism. After Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party robbed the Tories of their majority in the 2017 general election, it took the maneuvering of Boris Johnson to knit together the necessary coalition to win the 2019 vote, on a platform of delivering Brexit and “leveling up” across Britain to reduce regional inequalities.8Anthony Reuben, “What is levelling up and who is it helping?” BBC News, March 15, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/56238260. But Johnson was a polarizing presence as leader, with many members of the Tory party keen to get back to Thatcherite basics. When the Partygate scandal hit, both the public and the Tory party turned on him.9Pat Stack, “Boris Liar Johnson,” rs21, July 8, 2023, https://www.rs21.org.uk/2023/07/08/boris-liar-johnson/.
Johnson’s replacement, Liz Truss, was in office for just seven weeks and in that time went through two chancellors and two home secretaries. Truss brought the weight of the markets down on the government and sent interest rates spiralling upwards.10Kate Deer, “Will Trussonomics work?” rs21, September 29, 2022, https://www.rs21.org.uk/2022/09/29/will-trussonomics-work/. Sunak was anointed without competition and governed as a technocrat with a sideline in repellent anti-migrant rhetoric and policy. Sunak chose to appease the aging, racist base of the party by targeting migrants arriving in Britain over the English Channel, raising the slogan “Stop the Boats” and devising a cruel scheme to deport migrants to Rwanda.11Phil Burton-Cartledge, “The Class Politics of Tory Collapse,” All That Is Solid … (blog), July 9, 2024, https://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com/2024/07/the-class-politics-of-tory-collapse.html; Jeremy Corbyn, “Jeremy Corbyn: Our Political Class Are Emboldening the Far Right,” Tribune, May 2, 2024, https://tribunemag.co.uk/2024/05/jeremy-corbyn-our-political-class-are-emboldening-the-far-right. The Tories were clapped out and turning on each other with increasing venom. The sooner they were gone, the better.
Yet the alternative was hardly palatable. Since the defeat of the Labour party under Jeremy Corbyn in the 2019 election, Keir Starmer had broken almost every pledge he was elected as leader on, veering to the right and embracing a cruel authoritarianism with a gusto which ought to have been expected from Britain’s former chief prosecutor.12Greg Barradale and Isabelle McCrae, “All of Keir Starmer’s U-turns and abandoned policy pledges, from child benefits to public schools,” Big Issue, May 16, 2024, https://www.bigissue.com/news/politics/keir-starmer-broken-promises-tuition-fees-nationalisation-u-turn/; Peter Osborne and Richard Sanders, “UK Labour: Why Starmer’s growing authoritarianism should be ringing alarm bells,” Middle East Eye, September 26, 2023, https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/uk-labour-starmer-authoritarianism-alarm-bells-ringing. Starmer had waged war on the left in the party, ensuring that there could never be a repeat of Corbynism in its ranks as one of his key missions. For much of the previous four years, the Labour left had been reduced to a rump, ineffectual force. Corbyn himself had been stripped of the Labour whip and has sat as an independent MP since 2020.
Starmer’s second, connected task was to reestablish the credibility of Labour as a safe pair of hands for British capitalism and a stabilizing force in the face of the Tories’ fratricide. Prior to Johnson’s departure, Labour had been setting out some big-ticket spending policies, including a £28 billion-a-year green investment program. However, after Johnson’s departure and the disastrous Truss experiment, Labour were flying high in the polls, while government borrowing was much more expensive. The green investment program was slashed, and pledges around workers’ rights were watered down to blunt Tory claims that Labour was antibusiness.13Kiran Stacey and Fiona Harvey, “Labour cuts £28bn green investment pledge by half,” Guardian, February 8, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/08/labour-cuts-28bn-green-investment-pledge-by-half; Lucy Fisher, Michael O’Dwyer, and Jim Pickard, “Labour rows back on workers’ rights to blunt ‘anti-business’ claims,” Financial Times, August 17, 2023, https://www.ft.com/content/30a8a3f1-c5ad-4b85-bb48-7b7de05470f4. Tax hikes on the rich were ruled out, with then-shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves saying that she wanted to lower taxes.14Faisal Islam and Dearbal Jordan, “Labour says it won’t announce any more tax rises,” BBC News, May 28, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce990eg3rq2o. It seemed to work, with last year’s Labour conference oversubscribed as businesses and exhibitors clamored to get a seat at the table.15Katie Neame, “Labour set for record-breaking turnout and cash boost from party conference,” LabourList, August 15, 2023, https://labourlist.org/2023/08/labour-party-conference-2023-record-attendance-income-general-election/. In the run-up to the election, many Tory-supporting business figures switched to Labour, and 121 business leaders signed a letter supporting Labour.16Tunde Adeniran et al., letter to the editor, Times, May 28, 2024, https://www.thetimes.com/comment/letters-to-editor/article/times-letters-sunaks-new-national-service-for-18-year-olds-9z8q6vchr.
Starmer’s “changed” Labour party underlined its hostility to the party’s left during the campaign. Loyalists were parachuted into safe Labour seats as candidates without members having any say, and several prominent left wingers were disallowed from standing at the last minute. Jeremy Corbyn was excluded from the Labour shortlist in his constituency, prompting him to announce an independent run. Diane Abbott, the first Black woman ever elected as an MP and a longstanding ally of Corbyn, was also initially excluded, before a vocal campaign in protest led to Starmer backtracking on the decision—a show of fragility in his authoritarian turn.17 Aletha Adu, Rowena Mason, and Eleni Courea, “Diane Abbott free to stand for Labour in election, says Starmer,” Guardian, May 31, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/31/diane-abbott-free-to-stand-for-labour-in-election-says-starmer.
The election campaign itself contained few surprises—the mass canvassing that had characterized Corbynism was much diminished. Nigel Farage’s last-minute decision to stand as an MP and assume leadership of his hard-right Reform UK party was a significant maneuver that caused even greater problems for the Tories. These were compounded by an almighty row that broke out over Sunak’s decision to leave a D-Day remembrance ceremony early, a move that was criticized by Tory cabinet members and seized upon by Farage who, in characteristic dog-whistle style, said Sunak didn’t “believe in the country, its people, its history or frankly even its culture.”18Joe Pike, “Sunak’s D-Day absence: How the PM walked into an election blunder,” BBC News, June 7, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn001p1x49ro; Fraser Nelson, “Farage is wrong to question Sunak’s patriotism,” Spectator, June 7, 2024, https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/farage-has-taken-his-d-day-attack-on-sunak-too-far/.
On the day the election was called, Labour had a 22-percentage-point lead over the Tories in the polling average, and on the eve of the poll they remained 18 points ahead.19BBC News, “General election 2024 poll tracker: How do the parties compare?” BBC News, July 3, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-68079726. Labour, it appeared, were headed for a historic victory.
Election Results (and Prospects)
The election results were broadly in line with expectations. Labour won a landslide victory, gaining 211 seats with a total haul of 412—just six short of Blair’s 418-seat victory in 1997. Seats that had swung to the Tories under Johnson were won back, along with swathes of Britain that had voted Tory for decades. The Tories plunged from 365 to 122 seats and won just 23.7 percent of the vote, their lowest ever share. The total Tory vote was around 6.8 million, less than half of what it won in 2019. Several cabinet members, as well as former prime minister Truss, lost their seats. The Liberal Democrat party, who had been decimated after going into coalition with the Tories in 2010, leapt to 72 seats, their highest ever showing, largely gained from Tory seats in the southeast of England. However, beneath the headlines were several significant developments.
First, Labour’s share of seats was not nearly matched by its share of the popular vote. Labour won around 63 percent of seats but just 33.7 percent of the vote. Not only is this just 1.6 percentage points higher than the share won by Corbyn in 2019, but a big decline in turnout to 59.9 percent (the second lowest ever), meaning that Corbyn had won more than half a million more votes in 2019, and around 3 million more in 2017. While Starmerites and pundits argue that this is evidence that “a ruthlessly efficient Labour machine won the election,” the reality is that the Tories lost the election—all Labour had to do was not fumble the ball.20Sienna Rodgers, “‘Gloriously boring’: How a ruthlessly efficient Labour machine won the election,” Politics Home, July 6, 2024, https://www.politicshome.com/thehouse/article/gloriously-boring-keir-starmer-won-2024-general-election. According to one postelection poll, the Tories lost 47 percent of their 2019 voters, but only 10 percent switched to Labour.21Adam McDonnell, “How Britain voted in the 2024 general election,” YouGov UK, July 8, 2024, https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election. The scale of Labour’s victory, therefore, owes more to the failure of the Tories and the bankruptcy of Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system than it does to popular enthusiasm for Starmer or his program. Indeed, 48 percent of Labour voters polled on the eve of the election said they were voting that way to get the Tories out, while just 5 percent said they agreed with their policies, and 1 percent voted for Starmer’s leadership.22Sarah Ledoux, “Why are Britons voting Labour?” YouGov UK, July 23, 2024, https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49947-why-are-britons-voting-labour.
Labour was gifted this election by a corroding Tory party which had lost the trust of its voters as well as much of its support among the capitalist class. The decision of Reform to contest the election in as many seats as possible contributed to a disastrous crash for the Tories. Yet, despite Labour riding high in the polls, the 20-plus-percentage-point lead never materialized. Labour’s lead over the Tories was just 10 percentage points, and it won fewer votes than in 2019 while it hemorrhaged votes to its left. So, what is Labour likely to do to try to solidify its position?
Second, Farage’s Reform UK won 4.1 million votes—14.3 percent of the total—and five seats, the biggest ever breakthrough for a hard right party in Britain. To put this in context, the last time there was a country-wide challenge by a Nigel Farage electoral vehicle was in the 2015 general election, when the UK Independence Party got 3.9 million votes, a 12.6 percent share, and one MP. In absolute terms, Reform’s advance is limited. However, with five MPs, they are in a much stronger position to capitalize on their breakthrough this time, and there is a broader dynamic of an advancing far-right in Europe and elsewhere.23Richard Seymour, “The rise of disaster nationalism,” New Statesman, July 22, 2024, https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2024/07/the-rise-of-disaster-nationalism. One poll suggested that 23 percent of 2019 Tory voters opted for Reform this time around, a key factor in the Tories’ spectacular collapse as Farage’s outfit created a credible outlet for voters who had been attracted to Johnson’s “Get Brexit Done” mantra in 2019 but couldn’t stomach voting for Labour.24Patrick Flynn, “How Britain Voted 2024,” FocalData (blog), FocalData, July 6, 2024, https://www.focaldata.com/blog/how-britain-voted-2024. The result was that the Tories’ support among people who voted to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum collapsed by 42 points, while the only other cohorts it led were the over sixty-fives and people who owned their homes outright, while Reform came second in over 100 seats (89 of which were won by Labour).
We should be careful of lumping together the Tory and Reform votes as a notional “right wing” block. Another poll said that only 36 percent of their voters would have considered voting for the Tories and 25 percent wouldn’t have voted for any other party, suggesting that a significant section of their support comes from antiestablishment protest voters.25Tweet by Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl), X, July 5, 2024, 10:58 p.m., https://x.com/luketryl/status/1809270711619395945. Yet Farage and his candidates made no secret of their desire to focus the election on the question of immigration, going as far to propose a freeze on “non-essential” immigration that he blamed for the housing crisis and NHS waiting lists.26Jennifer McKiernan, “Reform UK proposes a ‘freeze’ on immigration,” BBC News, June 17, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cv22qdq7znno. The potential for Farage to further polarize politics, especially in the context of a Labour government with a tepid program of reforms, should not be overlooked.
The third development was a significant breakthrough for independent, pro-Gaza candidates. Polling by YouGov in late May found that 73 percent of people in Britain support an immediate ceasefire—including 67 percent of those who voted for the Tories in 2019—while only 8 percent of people were opposed.27Medical Aid for Palestinians, “New poll shows sustained British public support for immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the suspension of UK arms sales to Israel,” MAP, May 17, 2024, https://www.map.org.uk/news/archive/post/1585-new-poll-shows-sustained-british-public-support-for-immediate-ceasefire-in-gaza-and-the-suspension-of-uk-arms-sales-to-israel. Some 55 percent of people support suspending arms sales to Israel. Only 18 percent approved of the Tory government’s response to the genocide, and just 12 percent approved of Labour’s. The genocide in Gaza rightly haunted the Labour Party throughout the campaign. Starmer did not call for a ceasefire until mid-February, over four months into the onslaught, and in November last year he sacked shadow ministers who broke his order to not vote for a ceasefire in parliament.28Sam Francis, “Sir Keir Starmer calls for Gaza ‘ceasefire that lasts,’” BBC News, February 18, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-68331322. He has consistently dodged efforts to commit to an arms embargo. Gaza was a constant presence in the background of the election campaign, as university encampments persevered, and Labour candidates complained about being challenged over their failure to vote for a ceasefire in parliament. Labour declared a number of previously safe seats with high Muslim populations ‘battleground seats’ as it became clear that in many places their vote was not as solid as they had initially hoped.29 Daniel Green, “Revealed: Labour website says party ‘need helps’ defending 16 seats in more Musim areas – including ultra-safe seats,” LabourList, May 31, 2024, https://labourlist.org/2024/05/labour-muslim-constituencies-general-election-2024/.
Jeremy Corbyn won 49 percent of the vote against 29 percent for his Labour opponent in Islington North, with a margin of over seven thousand votes. This result was symbolically crucial as a defense of a figurehead of the left in the teeth of Starmer’s opposition, and a significant achievement given the resources Labour had thrown into the seat. Elsewhere, four other independents unseated Labour MPs by campaigning around Gaza, as well as the NHS and the cost-of-living crisis, including Shockat Adam who overturned a 22,675 Labour majority to unseat the shadow cabinet member Jonathan Ashworth. Independents came close or credible seconds in many other constituencies, with British-Palestinian activist Leanne Mohamad coming just 528 votes behind Wes Streeting, the new Health Secretary. Keir Starmer himself saw his majority slashed by 21 percent as Andrew Feinstein (the Jewish socialist and former ANC member of parliament in South Africa) came second, ensuring that Starmer became “the first British Prime Minister in electoral history to enter 10 Downing Street having seen his majority reduced.”30John Kelly, “The Left and Far Left in the 2024 UK General Election,” British Politics Substack, Birkbeck Center for British Political Life, July 16, 2024, https://bbkbritpol.substack.com/p/the-left-and-far-left-in-the-2024; “Apartheid activist addresses pro-Palestine protest following UK election,” YouTube video, 0:58, posted by “Middle East Eye,” July 27, 2024, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzgdJVfK4bA.
The Green Party increased their representation in parliament from one to four seats and won 6.7 percent of the popular vote. In Bristol Central they ousted the shadow cabinet member, Thangam Debbonaire. However, while the Greens project themselves as a force on the left at the national level, they are a divided, Janus-faced party in many ways. They pursued a left-wing approach in urban areas (where they emphasized calls for a ceasefire and demands to end arms sales to Israel), while in rural areas (where they targeted Tory voters) their campaigns focused on local issues and did not mention Palestine.31Martin Booth, “Greens Focus on Gaza as Key Issue in Bristol Central,” B24/7, June 3, 2024, https://www.bristol247.com/news-and-features/news/greens-focus-gaza-key-issue-bristol-central/; Yuri Prasad, “Green advances show left-right divide in party,” Socialist Worker, July 5, 2024, https://socialistworker.co.uk/general-election-2024/green-advances-show-left-right-divide-in-party/. Even with this caveat, this election saw the most successful left-of-Labour challenge in British electoral history.
Labour was gifted this election by a corroding Tory party which had lost the trust of its voters as well as much of its support among the capitalist class. The decision of Reform to contest the election in as many seats as possible contributed to a disastrous crash for the Tories. Yet, despite Labour riding high in the polls, the 20-plus-percentage-point lead never materialized. Labour’s lead over the Tories was just 10 percentage points, and it won fewer votes than in 2019 while it hemorrhaged votes to its left. So, what is Labour likely to do to try to solidify its position?
How Will Labour Govern?
Despite a landslide in terms of seats in parliament, Starmer’s Labour has entered office with a weak popular mandate and an anemic reform program. The Labour manifesto, with its five missions for government and six first steps for change were largely vague (“Kickstart economic growth”…somehow); meaningless (“Recruit 6,500 new teachers” when over 40,000 are leaving the profession each year); or downright reactionary (“Launch a new Border Security Command,” “Crack down on antisocial behavior”).32“Mission-driven government,” Labour, https://labour.org.uk/change/mission-driven-government/; Keir Starmer, “My first steps for change,” Labour, June, 28, 2024, https://labour.org.uk/updates/stories/labours-first-steps-for-change/. Everyone knows they are going to need to put some meat on the bones of this program in the months ahead. Starmer has been keen to define his “permanently” changed Labour Party against Corbynism.33Eleni Courea and Aletha Adu, “Starmer to say he’s ‘changed’ Labour as party rules out raising income tax or NI,” Guardian, May 26, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/26/starmer-to-say-hes-changed-labour-as-party-rules-out-raising-income-tax-or-ni. One easy way of doing this has been to talk up their commitment to increased defense spending and nuclear weapons.34Keir Starmer, “Labour aims to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP,” Guardian, April 12, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/11/keir-starmer-labour-defence-nuclear-deterrent-barrow. Yet, Corbyn’s platform was not some left-wing fantasy as the right often pretended: it was a broadly left-Keynesian attempt to deal with the economic challenges facing the British economy and state in the wake of the Great Recession and its accompanying catastrophic austerity.35Joe Sabatini, “#GE2017: How radical are Labour’s economic policies?” rs21, May 29, 2017, https://www.rs21.org.uk/2017/05/29/ge2017-how-radical-are-labours-economic-policies/. These challenges have only grown with the permanently increased impact of climate catastrophe, the resurgence of both geopolitical rivalry and interimperialist war, and the attendant economic shocks of these developments.
The chancellor of the exchequer, Rachel Reeves, has ruled out increases to income tax, national insurance, value-added tax (sales tax), or corporation tax, which together account for three quarters of government revenues. Starmer has cleared the path for an autumn budget that would raise other taxes, saying that the Tories had left “a more severe crisis than we thought as we go through the books” with “failure absolutely everywhere.”36George Parker and Sam Fleming, “Rachel Reeves to pay way for UK budget tax rises in ‘spending audit,’” Financial Times, July 25, 2024, https://www.ft.com/content/41963e35-0a3f-4d4d-afec-4f873dee7237. Labour must have known this was the case beforehand. Indeed, during the election campaign, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said that winning the election and then declaring that “that things are ‘worse than expected’ would be fundamentally dishonest.”37Carl Emmerson, Paul Johnson, and Ben Zaranko, “Public finances and the 2024 general election,” Institute for Fiscal Studies, May 25, 2024, https://ifs.org.uk/articles/public-finances-and-2024-general-election. In a statement on July 29, Reeves announced a £22 billion shortfall that would be made up through future tax hikes and a raft of spending cuts on a range of already announced schemes, including scrapping announced new road infrastructure and hospital projects, abandoning a cap on personal social care costs, and dropping winter fuel payments for 10 million pensioners.38Chris Newlands, “Rachel Reeves scraps long-awaited cap on social care costs – here is what it means,” MoneyWeek, July 31, 2024, https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/rachel-reeves-scraps-long-awaited-cap-on-social-care-costs; Michael Savage and Jon Ungoed-Thomas, “UK pensioners left on ‘financial cliff edge’ by cuts to winter fuel payments,” Guardian, August 4, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/aug/04/uk-pensioners-left-on-financial-cliff-edge-by-cuts-to-winter-fuel-payments. This lurch into austerity echoes the approach of the former Tory chancellor George Osborne, something Osborne himself has noted.39Aditya Chakraborty, “The cynical sphere of Osbornomics is haunting the Labour party,” Guardian, August 1, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/aug/01/george-osborne-osbornomics-labour-party-public-sector-cuts-rachel-reeves; Tweet by Stats for Lefties (@LeftieStats), X, August 2, 2024, 4:17 p.m., https://x.com/LeftieStats/status/1819467490248056839. Austerity in the wake of the financial crisis delivered social devastation and economic stagnation.40Grace Blakeley, “How Austerity Broke Britain,” Tribune, April 16, 2023, https://tribunemag.co.uk/2023/04/how-austerity-ruined-britain. What is Labour hoping will go differently this time?
For one thing, Labour is pitching these cuts as an emergency response that will feed into a longer-term plan to kickstart the economy. Their entire approach to tackling the social crisis in Britain is pegged on increasing growth, yet average annual growth rates in Britain have roughly halved from about 3.5 percent a year in the 1960s to below 2 percent today.41Chris Giles and George Parker, “Kwarteng will struggle to hit 2.5% growth target, warn experts,” Financial Times, September 13, 2022, https://www.ft.com/content/9ed0b23b-60a2-4f47-9cca-614c922c7a2d?shareType=nongift. One key way Labour intends to address this rests on a partnership with finance, bringing in private investment to rebuild the country’s crumbling infrastructure, and many projects that Reeves has paused for the time being will likely be resuscitated as public-private partnerships. As Daniela Gabor puts it, this amounts to inviting asset managers like BlackRock “to privatise Britain—our housing, education, health, nature and green energy—with our taxpayer money as sweetener.”42Daniela Gabor, “Labour is putting its plans for Britain in the hands of private finance. It could end badly,” Guardian, July 2, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/02/labour-plans-britain-private-finance-blackrock. A new National Wealth Fund aims to attract £3 of private finance for every £1 of public cash invested.43Kalyeena Makortoff, “What is the national wealth fund and what will it invest in?” Guardian, July 9, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/09/what-is-the-national-wealth-fund-and-what-will-it-invest-in. This asset manager’s dream opens the economy to public money “derisking” private investments. Details on Great British Energy—a new publicly-owned power company—remain vague, while the watered-down Green Prosperity Plan has dropped from £28 billion a year of new investment to £15 billion, only £4.7 billion of which would be new money.44Ed Miliband, “Great British Energy is becoming reality – bringing with it cheap, clean and secure energy,” Guardian, July 25, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/25/great-british-energy-ed-miliband-labour-clean-power.
Beyond the electoral realm, the left needs to be ready to fight Starmer’s Labour right away. A Labour government will be different to the Tories, but we cannot allow the fact that they will abandon some unpopular policies lull us into a false sense of security. It is right that we need to fight to shape what Great British energy turns into and to make sure workers’ rights are improved. But we would be mistaken to do so thinking we had a friend in the Labour Party.
Critical to boosting economic growth will be addressing the productivity puzzle.45Joe Sabatani, “On productivity, living standards, and the British economic model – thoughts and reflections,” rs21, November 30, 2017, https://www.rs21.org.uk/2017/11/30/on-productivity-living-standards-and-the-british-economic-model-thoughts-and-reflections/. Labour productivity in Britain grew by around 2 percent a year from the early 1990s until the economic crisis of 2008–09 but has barely increased since then.46Giles and Parker, “Kwarteng will struggle.” It is from this backdrop that we should consider Labour’s plans to partially rebalance employment rights in favor of workers. Reeves has been at pains to stress that business has “nothing to fear” from Labour’s proposals, but adds that “there is now a mountain of economic evidence that fair pay and in-work security are crucial, not only to fairness and dignity but to our productivity too.”47Isabel Jackson, “Labour weakens proposed ban on zero-hours contracts – what does this mean for businesses?” People Management, May 29, 2024, https://www.peoplemanagement.co.uk/article/1872069/labour-weakens-proposed-ban-zero-hours-contracts-%E2%80%93-does-mean-businesses. Labour’s New Deal for Working People has seen a number of “rowbacks,” with commitments becoming consultations, to the point that Sharon Graham, leader of the Unite trade union, said the latest version had “more holes in it than Swiss cheese.”48Tom Belger, “Revealed: Key NPF changes to Labour’s New Deal for Working People,” LabourList, September 15, 2023, https://labourlist.org/2023/09/labour-national-policy-npf-new-deal-workers-rights/; Tom Belger, “Starmer defends New Deal rebrand as Unite claims ‘more holes than cheese,’” LabourList, May 25, 2024, https://labourlist.org/2024/05/labour-new-deal-make-work-pay-no-u-turns-starmer-workers-rights/. But Labour’s industrial strategy document argues that plans to regulate and modernize the labor market “will play an important role in boosting productivity and tackling low pay in the everyday economy, ensuring businesses that invest in technology and their workforce can’t be undercut by those that drive down standards.”49Labour, Prosperity Through Partnership: Labour’s Industrial Strategy (London: Labour, 2023), https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Industrial-Strategy.pdf.
Tackling low pay is an important consideration for Labour. Universal Credit (UC) spending in 2023–24 is expected to have reached £80.9 billion, and 38 percent of claimants are in work —a colossal tax-driven subsidy for low-paying employers.50Office for Budget Responsibility, “Welfare Spending: Universal Credit,” Office for Budget Responsibility, https://obr.uk/forecasts-in-depth/tax-by-tax-spend-by-spend/welfare-spending-universal-credit/; Department for Works and Pensions, “Universal Credit statistics, 29 April 2013 to 12 October 2023,” GOV.UK, November 14, 2023, https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-12-october-2023/universal-credit-statistics-29-april-2013-to-12-october-2023. Labour knows that to win another term, it needs people to feel as though they’re better off. But while Labour talk about “partnership across business, civil society and trade unions,” the question of who will win out will be posed sharply. We would be naive to expect capital to allow significant ingress to their profitability, or that Labour would force them to. The asset managers that Labour sees as partners in investment and boosting productivity have no interest in higher wages or better terms and conditions for workers. It may well be that the strike wave of recent years is a harbinger of things to come.51Raymond Morell, “Tories Collapse amidst a Growing Strike Wave: How a Resurging Labor Movement is Reshaping the UK’s Political Landscape,” Spectre Journal, November 1st, 2022, https://spectrejournal.com/tories-collapse-amidst-a-growing-strike-wave/. This is one reason why Labour are keen to buy some measure of social peace by settling above-inflation public sector pay claims, with Reeves pointing out “there is a cost to not settling, a cost of further industrial action, and a cost in terms of the challenge we face recruiting.”52Laura Kuenssberg, “Reeves hints at above-inflation public sector pay rise,” BBC News, July 21, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng5n0my0zo. Labour have already agreed to junior doctors securing a pay deal worth an average of 22.3 percent over two years after forty-four days of strikes, one of the highest profile and longest running industrial disputes of recent years. Labour will seek to enlist asset managers to rebuild infrastructure, while cutting services and insisting that growth is the only way out of economic woes. As it does so, it will try to cover itself by trumpeting its social authoritarianism.
Labour’s marked reactionary turn has been clear for years, with its embrace of transphobia and other so-called “culture war” talking points.53Pat Stack, “Labour and the election,” rs21, May 31, 2024, https://www.rs21.org.uk/2024/05/31/labour-and-the-election/. Now in power, Labour will double down on many of these positions. Starmer’s aides believe that delivering good policies is not enough, and that voters will need to feel and see changes rapidly.54Gabriel Pogrund, “Labour celebrated election success—now they’re targeting Reform,” Times, July 7, 2024, https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/how-labour-celebrated-election-success-and-why-theyre-now-targeting-reform-b2f7rcpqr. One area Starmer is keen for quick results is on immigration. The new Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, spent her first day in office instructing civil servants to quickly recruit a new border security commander who “must be a former police chief, intelligence chief, or military commander.”55Pogrund, “Labour celebrated election success.” Alan Milburn, a former Blairite minister and now adviser to the government, has called for sweeping reforms to a “crazy” benefits system in order to force the long-term sick to look for work as part of addressing the productivity crisis and Britain’s “toxic” reliance on immigration.56Chris Smyth, “Long-term sick should be forced to seek work, says Labour adviser,” Times, July 23, 2024, https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/long-term-sick-should-be-forced-to-seek-work-says-labour-adviser-p8rzr73zl. Health secretary Wes Streeting has called it “immoral” and “unfair” to rely on migrants in the NHS, and said Britain was not investing in “homegrown talent.”57Eleanor Langford, “Over-reliance on migration to staff NHS is ‘immoral’, Wes Streeting claims,” i, May 19, 2024, https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/over-reliance-migration-nhs-wes-streeting-3063238. Starmer has already been glad-handing with far-right leaders in Europe, like Italy’s Georgia Meloni and Hungary’s Viktor Orban, laughing and joking about the difficulties of bringing his party along with his policies.58Alex Wickham, Ailbhe Rea, and Ellen Milligan, “Starmer sees Trump Comeback as a Warning About His Own UK Danger,” Bloomberg, July 20, 2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-20/starmer-sees-trump-comeback-as-a-warning-about-his-own-uk-danger. Starmer’s calculation is that these measures, coupled with toughness on crime and antisocial behaviour, will both bulletproof him against traditional right-wing lines of attack and prove popular with the public—or at least, a section of the public he is cultivating to re-elect his government for a second term.
We can see the broad outlines of Labour’s program taking shape: economic growth as panacea to all ills; an attempt to accommodate the unions, and with them sections of the organized working class, through a partial rebalancing of workers’ rights, collective bargaining and settled pay claims, while increasing contingency and precarity for migrants and the sick; partnerships with asset managers who seek to privatize infrastructure, while making limited and contradictory moves towards public ownership through railway nationalization and Great British Energy; cuts to services papered over with concessions to “populist” authoritarianism and attacks on migrants and trans rights. Starmer surely understands his landslide is not an electoral fortress but a “sandcastle.”59James Kanagasooriam, “Labour’s winning coalition may be another political sandcastle,” Times, June 13, 2024, https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/labour-winning-coalition-political-sandcastle-ukip-keir-starmer-mlkq8zdbp/. The voting blocs of the twentieth century have been eroded and Labour wants to work fast to knit together a new electoral coalition.
Things Must Only Get Better
Less than a month after the general election, the worst racist violence seen in decades erupted on the streets of Britain and the north of Ireland. After the tragic murders of three children, false reports spread like wildfire through far-right social networks naming a Muslim migrant as the killer.60Andy Cunningham, “Southport murders and fascism,” rs21, August 4, 2024, https://www.rs21.org.uk/2024/08/04/southport-murders-and-fascism/. Years of antimigrant and Islamophobic rhetoric and policy fed the emergence of pogroms, as far-right rioters burnt hotels housing asylum seekers, laid siege to mosques and assaulted Black and Asian people on the streets, all while echoing the slogan of the last government: “Stop the Boats.”61Peter Osborne, “Far-right riots: UK media and politicians are almost wholly to blame,” Middle East Eye, August 5, 2024, https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/far-right-riots-uk-media-politicians-wholly-blame; Emine Sinmaz, “Why are people rioting across England and how many are involved?” Guardian, August 6, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/aug/05/why-people-rioting-across-england-how-many-involved/. While Starmer has promised a state-led clampdown, working-class communities, Muslim groups, and the left have responded rapidly to events, with solidarity vigils, rallies and community self-defence.62Rachel Hall, “England rioters can expect knock on door from police, says Yvette Coooper,” Guardian, August 5, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/article/2024/aug/05/england-rioters-can-expect-knock-on-door-from-police-says-yvette-cooper. Across the country, united antifascist organisation will need to be rebuilt in the days and weeks ahead.
Now an MP, Nigel Farage has responded to the pogroms in typical fashion, decrying lawlessness while saying that there is an impression of “two-tier policing,” that the Black Lives Matter protests were policed “softly,”and that the riots were caused by a failure to debate “uncontrolled immigration.”63Tweet by Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage), X, August 5, 2024, 2:34 a.m., https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1820347660538204565. Starmer has one eye on the potential challenge posed by Farage, and intends to argue along the lines of: “We don’t need a Reform government as we’ve already had the Reform-lite” in the Tory governments of the last five years.64Pogrund, “Labour celebrated election success.” This is an incredibly shortsighted approach, since Farage himself would be keen to say the problem is that Reform-lite isn’t enough—you need the real thing. After attending his first Prime Minister’s Questions session in Parliament, Farage took to Twitter to say “There is no opposition in the chamber at all. The Tories agree with Labour on virtually everything.”65Tweet by Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage), X, July 24, 2024, 8:54 a.m., https://x.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1816094672785170483. While the Tories are locked into a long leadership election that will decide the future direction of the party, there is little to indicate that its membership desire anything less than to claim the ground that Reform have occupied.66Burton-Cartledge, “The Class Politics of Tory Collapse.” Not only will Reform seek to polarize around racist attacks on migrants and Muslims, but as Jonas Marvin has pointed out, it may also seek to draw upon rural anger against climate regulations, which has been an effective mobilizing force in Europe, to expand its coalition.67Jonas Marvin, “Grey Labour, Labour Greys,” Marx’s Dream Journal (substack), July 20, 2024, https://proletarianblues.substack.com/p/grey-labour-labour-greys.
The radical left will face many other challenges in the years ahead, but also opportunities. For one thing, the presence of even a handful of independent leftwing MPs in parliament is a new dynamic. Starmer’s decision to enforce his authority by suspending seven left Labour MPs who voted to abolish a draconian cap on child benefits makes it clear that the room for maneuver for the parliamentary left in Labour is practically nonexistent.68 Jessica Elgot, “Labour suspends seven rebels who voted to suspend two-child benefit cap,” Guardian, July 23, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/23/labour-mps-vote-to-scrap-two-child-benefit-cap-in-first-rebellion-for-starmer. MPs sanctioned by Starmer need to quickly decide whether they will debase themselves and hope for reinstatement in six months’ time, or to take up the offer made by Corbyn and the other independents to work with them.69Tweet by Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn), X, July 24, 2024, 6:53 a.m., https://x.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1816064267034190076. While we should not hold our breath for a Labour left that has shown dreadful timidity over the last four years, we need to make the argument that we are now in a very different conjuncture.70Daniel Finn, “Same Blade,” Sidecar (blog), New Left Review, July 16, 2024, https://newleftreview.org/sidecar/posts/same-blade. As Phil Burton-Cartledge has suggested, the last election has shown that there is an “anti-imperialist, anti-austerity, green, pro-working class politics that is capable of returning MPs.”71Phil Burton-Cartledge, “After the Child Benefit Rebellion,” All That Is Solid … (blog), July 23, 2024, https://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com/2024/07/after-child-benefit-rebellion.html. Corbyn himself has written that this movement needs to build its power from below to run in elections and “challenge those at the top.”72Jeremy Corbyn, “People-power led to my re-election. It is the start of a new politics,” Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/12/people-power-re-election-new-politics-jeremy-corbyn. The revolutionary left will need to think hard about how it can relate to and contribute to these developments.
Beyond the electoral realm, the left needs to be ready to fight Starmer’s Labour right away. A Labour government will be different to the Tories, but we cannot allow the fact that they will abandon some unpopular policies lull us into a false sense of security.73Sally Weale and Ben Quinn, “Labour halts Tory law on freedom of speech in English universities,” Guardian, July 26, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/jul/26/labour-halts-tory-law-freedom-of-speech-universities-education; Sylvia Hui, “UK’s scrapped Rwanda migrant plan a ‘shocking waste’ of $904 million in public funds, minister says,” AP News, July 22, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/britain-uk-rwanda-plan-migrants-390ab706c755a1aa74fd6abed1230bc9#. It is right that we need to fight to shape what Great British energy turns into and to make sure workers’ rights are improved. But we would be mistaken to do so thinking we had a friend in the Labour Party. Starmer will not want to be seen to give an inch to popular movements—look at how Labour’s decision to drop Britain’s opposition to the International Criminal Court issuing arrest warrants for Israeli leaders like Benjamin Netanyahu is dressed up as respect for international law and not as a response to the mass movement in solidarity with Palestine that has taken the streets, blockaded infrastructure, and hit Labour at the ballot box.74Kiran Stacey, “Britain drops its challenge to ICC arrest warrants for Israeli leaders,” Guardian, July 26, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/law/article/2024/jul/26/britain-drops-challenge-icc-arrest-warrants-israeli-leaders-netanyahu-gallant. As Labour seeks to placate trade union leaders, we will have to push those leaders to fight the government, as well as meaningfully contribute to antifascist and promigrant mobilization. We need to continue to develop rank and file organization in the unions and build a constituency for a break with Labour.75Ian Allinson, “What is the potential for rank-and-file organisation today?” rs21, June 30, 2023, https://www.rs21.org.uk/2023/06/30/what-is-the-potential-for-rank-and-file-organisation-today/. No quarter can be given to cuts and social authoritarianism, which will disproportionately impact racialized working class people. If things are indeed to get better, we cannot rely on Starmer’s Labour—we will have to face them with the same implacable opposition that we would the Tories.